CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | BJP has an edge, but a tough fight is possible

The Narendra Modi factor continues to play a major role in providing the NDA with its advantage. However, livelihood-related issues are emerging as major concerns in this election, says CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey

THE HINDU BUREAU

Three weeks before the 2024 general election was to commence, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) enjoyed a comfortable 12 percentage point lead over the rival alliance, INDIA, according to the CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey. The Narendra Modi factor continues to play a major role in providing the NDA with its advantage. However, livelihood-related issues are emerging as major concerns in this election. Dissatisfaction over unemployment and inflation among sections of the society indicates that a tough fight is on the cards.

While a significant share of people continues to be satisfied with the NDA government, the numbers have come down compared to the 2019 pre-poll survey. Before the 2019 polls, 65% said they were “somewhat” or “fully” satisfied with the government. In 2024, the share of such respondents has come down to 57%. The share of those “somewhat” or “fully” dissatisfied has increased from 30% to 39%. Notably, the degree of satisfaction was markedly lower among the southern regions compared to the north and the west.

Satisfaction with the Central government

Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the work of the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre over the last five years?

Statement

Pre- poll 2024

Post-poll 2019

Fully satisfied

23%

26%

Somewhat satisfied

34%

39%

Somewhat dissatisfied

19%

12%

Fully dissatisfied

20%

18%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as some did not respond | Survey respondents: 10,019 across 19 States

Satisfaction with the Central government by Class

Satisfaction with the work done by Central Government

Economic Class

Fully satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Fully dissatisfied

Poor

22%

33%

16%

22%

Lower

21%

35%

20%

20%

Middle

22%

35%

20%

20%

Upper

30%

32%

18%

18%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as some did not respond | Survey respondents: 10,019 across 19 States

Satisfaction with the Central government by Locality

Satisfaction with the work done by Central Government

Locality

Fully satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Fully dissatisfied

Villages

24%

36%

17%

19%

Towns

20%

31%

22%

22%

Cities

20%

29%

23%

25%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as some did not respond | Survey respondents: 10,019 across 19 States

Satisfaction with the Central government by Regions

Satisfaction with the work done by Central Government

Regions

Fully satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Fully dissatisfied

North and West

27%

31%

17%

22%

South

16%

39%

18%

21%

East and North-east

21%

37%

22%

15%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as some did not respond | Survey respondents: 10,019 across 19 States

Social groups and Level of Satisfaction with the Central Government

Satisfaction with the work done by Central Government

Caste/ communities

Fully satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Fully dissatisfied

Hindu upper caste

34%

34%

15%

13%

Hindu OBC

25%

38%

18%

15%

Hindu SCs

21%

36%

18%

22%

Hindu STs

17%

41%

23%

15%

Muslims

8%

24%

23%

36%

Others

11%

29%

21%

32%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as some did not respond | Survey respondents: 10,019 across 19 States

Three factors

The decrease in satisfaction stems from inflation, increasing unemployment and poverty — the top three “least popular initiatives” of the Modi government, according to the survey. Especially, if only voters favouring the Opposition were considered, more than half of them cited these three factors as “least liked work of Mr. Modi”. “Ayodhya Ram Mandir” was chosen by many as this government’s “most admired work”. Especially among NDA voters, one in three chose the construction of the temple as the “most admired work of Mr. Modi”.

Flourish logoA Flourish table

Unemployment, price rise and falling income were also the top three reasons chosen by respondents as reasons for not giving the government another chance.

Flourish logoA Flourish table

As opposed to this, “good work”, welfare schemes and “Modi is a great leader” were the top three reasons given by respondents for giving the NDA another chance.

Flourish logoA Flourish table

Overall, the survey indicates that the BJP is heading into the 2024 elections with a healthy lead, although questions about its performance have left the field open.

Should the government get another chance?

2004

2009*

2014

2019

2024

Yes

48

55

23

47

44

No

30

45

54

35

39

No Response

22

—

23

18

17

Source: National Election Studies done by Lokniti-CSDS over time

*In 2009, the options were only ‘yes’ and ‘no’. The category of ‘No response’ was not provided

Reason for re-electing the incumbent government

Question asked: Why should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre get another chance?

Reason for giving another chance %

Good work 42

Welfare schemes 18

Modi is a great leader 10

Construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya 8

Removing Article 370 6

India’s international image 4

Protection of Hindu interests/Hindutva 4

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as the rest either gave other responses or did not respond

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Reason for not election the incumbent government

Question asked: Why should the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre not get another chance?

Reason for BJP-led NDA government not get another chance %

Increasing unemployment 32

Price rise/inflation 20

Falling/decreasing income 11

Dealing with corruption/scams 7

Bad governance 6

Favouring big business/particular section of peoples 5

Worsening communalism/religious discrimination 5

Lack of economic growth 3

Issue related to Farmers 2

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024 • In the tables, the percentage of respondents won’t add up to 100%, as the rest either gave other responses or did not respond

Close to 48% of voters continue to back Mr. Modi as their choice for Prime Minister in the pre-poll survey, with 27% choosing Congress MP Rahul Gandhi.

The Voters’ choice for Prime Minister

Question asked: After the upcoming Lok Sabha Elections, who would you prefer as the next prime minister of India?

Choice of Prime Minister %

Narendra Modi 48%

Rahul Gandhi 27%

Arvind Kejriwal 3%

Mamata Banerjee 3%

Akhilesh Yadav 3%

Any other 6%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024

Note: Rest did not respond

Close to 56% of respondents trust “a lot” or “somewhat” Mr. Modi’s guarantees, with 49% saying the same about Mr. Gandhi’s guarantees. Notably, while Mr. Modi’s guarantees were trusted more by the richer households, the middle-class placed similar trust in both.

Level of trust in Modi’s and Rahul Gandhi’s guarantees

Question asked: The BJP is making many promises as Modi sarkar ki Guarantee. Do you think it is very likely, somewhat likely, not much likely or not at all likely that the BJP, if returned to power, will fulfill those promises? How much faith do you have that the guarantee given by Rahul Gandhi to provide jobs to the youth will be fulfilled – a lot, somewhat, not much or not at all?

Trust in Modi’s Guarantee (%)                                                  

Trust in Rahul Gandhi’s Guarantee (%)

A lot

23.00

17%

Somewhat

33.00

32%

Not much

16.00

20%

Not at all

19.00

18%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024

Note: Rest did not respond

Upper class trust in Modi’s guarantees; middle class trust in Rahul Gandhi’s guarantees

Trust in Modi’s Guarantee (%)

Trust in Rahul Gandhi’s Guarantee (%)

Gap in Level of Trust (%)

Overall

56%

49%

7%

Age

18-25 years

58%

53%

5%

26-35 years

55%

52%

3%

46-55years

56%

47%

9%

Above 55 years

52%

41%

11%

Locality

Village

58%

49%

9%

Town

49%

48%

1%

City

48%

44%

4%

Economic class

Poor

51%

44%

7%

Lower

54%

50%

4%

Middle

56%

53%

3%

Upper

62%

44%

18%

Education

Non-literate

49%

39%

10%

Primary pass

56%

48%

8%

Matric pass

59%

52%

7%

12+ pass

57%

51%

6%

College and above

55%

51%

4%

Source: Lokniti-CSDS Pre Poll survey 2024

Note: A lot and somewhat trust is clubbed together.

Courtesy : The Hindu

Note: This news is originally published in thehindu.com and was used solely for non-profit/non-commercial purposes exclusively for Human Rights.

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