The BJP has now grasped the power of Dalit voters and the caste equations in Punjab. In the last Punjab elections, a simple Dalit candidate from the Aam Aadmi Party defeated the veteran former Congress Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi. The BJP now sees Dalit voters as game-changers.
Punjab has the highest percentage of Scheduled Caste (SC/Dalit) population in any state in India. Dalits constitute approximately 32% to 33% of Punjab’s population. The Jat Sikh population is approximately 19% to 21%. Urban non-Dalit Hindus constitute approximately 18% to 20%. Other Backward Classes constitute approximately 20% to 31%.
With the approach of the 2027 Punjab Assembly Elections, the political landscape in the state is beginning to unfold. The BJP, which has long relied on Punjab’s urban Hindu vote and as a stooge of the Akali Dal, is now fully prepared to take the lead. For decades, the BJP, confined to a minor coalition partner in Punjab, is preparing for a major political shift. The party has set its sights on the Dalit vote bank, the state’s largest social force. Following the success of the Haryana model of non-Jat and backward-Dalit alliances, the BJP is also constructing a maze of non-Jat Sikh and Dalit-Hindu alliances in Punjab. Its direct aim is to directly target the support base of the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party.
Dalits constitute approximately 32% to 33% of Punjab’s population. Jat Sikhs constitute approximately 19% to 21%. Urban non-Dalit Hindus constitute approximately 18% to 20%. Other Backward Classes constitute approximately 20% to 31%. However, Punjab’s Dalit community is not a unified whole; rather, it is primarily divided into two or three major religious and social factions: Sikhs and Hindus of the Ravidassia group, influenced by Dera Sachkhand Ballan. They constitute approximately 13% of the population and reside in the Doaba region of Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur. Second, the Mazhabi Sikhs, primarily affiliated with the Sikh religion, constitute approximately 10% of the population. They reside in the Malwa and Majha regions. Third, the Bhangi Hindu Sikhs constitute approximately 3.5% of the population and reside in urban and rural areas across Punjab. The BJP is now eyeing these voters.
Will this BJP move be successful?
Punjab’s 117 assembly seats are divided into three major regions. The BJP is seeking its counterweight in these regional and social dynamics. The Malwa region, which has 69 seats, will be the BJP’s target this time. Malwa, traditionally a stronghold of the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Congress, has completely shifted to the Aam Aadmi Party in 2022. There has been a long-standing tension between Jat Sikh farmers and Mazabi Sikh laborers over land and resources.
What are the preparations for this time in Malwa, Doab, and Majha?
Doab, which has 23 seats, is primarily a Congress-held area. It is considered the “Dalit capital” of Punjab, with a Dalit population of over 40%. This region has been a traditional stronghold of the Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party, where the Ravidassia and Ad-Dharma communities play a decisive role. Majha, meanwhile, has 25 seats. The last election saw a direct contest between the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party, with the latter winning. This region encompassing Amritsar, Gurdaspur, and Tarn Taran is considered the center of sectarian Sikh politics, with the Congress, AAP, and the Akali Dal competing here.
Will Dalit votes be divided along Haryana lines?
In Haryana, the BJP consistently won elections by uniting Jats versus non-Jats and non-Jat Dalits. The BJP is pursuing a similar strategy in Punjab. For decades, the Chief Minister’s post in Punjab has been held by the Jat Sikh community, with the exception of Charanjit Singh Channi. The BJP is attempting to convey the message to non-Jat Sikh, Dalit, and Hindu voters that they have not received their due share in the state’s political leadership. The BJP is also working to bridge the social divide within Punjab’s Dalits between the religious Sikh and Ravidassia-Valmiki communities. The BJP’s primary goal is to attract sub-groups that received less representation in power during the Akali Dal and Congress regimes through organizational and welfare schemes.
The BJP’s ‘Chakravyuh’ to encircle the Congress and AAP
The BJP has prepared a three-pronged siege for Punjab 2027. First, deras like Dera Sachkhand Ballan and Dera Radha Soami Satsang Beas have a strong influence on Punjab’s Dalit vote bank. Through the central government, the BJP has prioritized direct contact with dera leaders and connectivity projects like the Kartarpur Corridor and the beautification of Guru Ravidas Maharaj sites. Second, the Congress made a major move by appointing Charanjit Singh Channi as the first Dalit Chief Minister in 2021. The BJP is now questioning why the Congress did not continue this experiment after Channi, which could have dented the Congress’s Dalit base. Third, the central government’s welfare schemes will be used to counter AAP’s freebies. The Aam Aadmi Party won in 2022 with significant support from Dalits and the poor. The BJP is now attempting to counter AAP’s freebies by capitalizing on the PM Awas Yojana, free rations, and schemes for Dalit entrepreneurs directly in villages, thus neutralizing the impact of AAP’s free electricity and water.
Overall, the road ahead for the BJP in Punjab is not easy. The resentment against the BJP in rural areas, particularly among Jat Sikh farmers, stemming from the protests against the three agricultural laws remains a major challenge. Furthermore, the BJP lacks a strong local grassroots cadre like other parties in rural Punjab and the Malwa region. Furthermore, if the BJP focuses solely on the Hindu and Dalit equation, it risks facing a blanket opposition from the Sikh sectarian vote.
Reported by: Ravi Shankar Singh
Courtesy: Hindi News