In the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, the mandate has defied all established traditions and electoral conventions, creating new equations that have created a new chemistry within Bihar's social structure.
This indicates that when the public decides on its own alliances and coalitions, it pushes aside traditional beliefs. This Bihar mandate is shocking in many ways because it has shattered the very assumptions of Bihar’s electoral mathematics, based on which political parties calculate their victory and defeat.
For example, in Muslim-dominated areas, this time’s mandate has shattered the Muslim-Yadav alliance, while also completely altering the election results in seats reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes. Although in Bihar’s past history, the ruling NDA won 206 seats in the 2010 elections, far exceeding the current 202 seats, the social equations were not resolved the way they have been in this election. This time, the public has sent a clear message that it will not accept any other equations in place of good governance and public welfare.
In the 2010 elections, Nitish Kumar’s party, the Janata Dal (United), contested 141 seats and won 115. The BJP contested a total of 102 seats and won 91. This time, the BJP and the JDU contested an equal number of seats, winning 101 each, with the BJP winning 89 and the JDU winning 85. However, these seats represented participation from all sections of society. JDU fielded four candidates from the Muslim community, all of whom won, while NDA ally Chirag Paswan’s LJP fielded one Muslim candidate.
The Seemanchal region of Bihar is considered a stronghold of Muslim votes, comprising the four districts of Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria, and Purnia. These four districts have 24 seats. It was believed that the Muslim vote bank in Seemanchal would remain unspoiled, but a split occurred, and five candidates from Asiduddin Owaisi’s Ittehad-e-Muslimeen party won from this region.
The same number of candidates from this party were victorious in the 2020 elections. The Muslim vote was divided between the opposition Grand Alliance and Ittehad-e-Muslimeen, resulting in the NDA’s greatest victory, with the largest number of its candidates winning from Seemanchal.
In Seemanchal, where there was a buzz about consolidation of Muslim votes, Hindu votes consolidated in favor of the NDA without any caste discrimination, resulting in the highest number of victories for this alliance’s candidates. Of the 24 seats in Seemanchal, the NDA secured 14, with the BJP winning seven, the JDU five, and Chirag Paswan’s LJP two. In the opposition Grand Alliance, the Congress secured four, the RJD only one, and Asiduddin Owaisi’s party won five.
While it was believed that the Seemanchal region would be more favorable for Lalu Yadav’s RJD party because of the Muslim majority here and the Muslim-Yadav equation being active, the opposite happened. Due to the division of Muslim votes, all four JD(U) Muslim candidates won. Kishanganj district has the highest Muslim voter turnout at over 67 percent, while Katihar has 45 percent, Araria 43 percent, and Purnia 39 percent. The Congress Party’s performance in Seemanchal is considered very poor, although it won four seats.
This is despite the region’s Muslims’ goodwill toward Rahul Gandhi. Thus, the NDA’s improved performance in Seemanchal this time compared to 2020, demonstrating that the Grand Alliance’s perceived Muslim bias has not affected it. Similarly, the state’s reserved seats for Dalits have been in a similar state.
Of the 40 reserved seats in Bihar, only two are reserved for Scheduled Tribes or Adivasis, while the remaining 38 are for Scheduled Castes. By capturing 34 of these 40 seats, the NDA demonstrated that the opposition Grand Alliance’s caste census strategy failed to work, and that the proponents of social justice, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party, have only marginalized the Scheduled Castes.
Although Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party, the RJD, received the highest number of votes in these 40 seats, with over 22 percent, it failed to win any seats. The Grand Alliance won only four out of 38 seats and one tribal seat.
In the previous elections in 2020, the NDA won 21 reserved seats and one tribal seat, while the Grand Alliance won 17 reserved seats and one tribal seat. Given the Grand Alliance’s poor performance in the reserved seats, it can be said that Rahul Gandhi’s Save the Constitution campaign was very weak in these areas. Thus, the NDA defeated the Grand Alliance on all fronts and created new electoral equations while strengthening its concept of public welfare.
Aditya Chopra
Courtesy: Hindi News