Bihar Politics: Campaigning for the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections has concluded. All eyes are now on Dalit and Muslim voters, who are considered to hold the key to power.
Bihar Assembly Elections: Campaigning for the second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections has concluded. All eyes are now on Dalit and Muslim voters. According to analysis, the key to the mandate lies in the hands of 18% Dalit voters, who have the power to swing the outcome in nearly 100 seats.
This phase also holds clues to the future political future of the Muslim community, which has a significant presence in three dozen seats, including Seemanchal. The situation this time is slightly different from the previous election. VIP, which supported the NDA last time, is now with the Grand Alliance, while Chirag, who contested the elections on his own, is working to strengthen the NDA this time.
Why is PK trying his best?
Beyond the opposition Grand Alliance, the Jan Suraj Party, following the AIMIM, is also striving to establish itself as the leader of Muslims. In a close contest, the NDA narrowly reached the magic majority mark by winning 17 more seats than the Grand Alliance.
A 1.6% Vote Shift
In the last election, the NDA received 1.6% more votes than the Grand Alliance. This lead helped it win 66 seats compared to the Grand Alliance’s 49. The NDA secured a significant lead in Anga Pradesh, Tirhut, and Mithila, while the RJD secured a significant lead in the Magadh region. In Seemanchal, the close contest and the presence of the AIMIM gave the NDA a slight advantage.
The Dalit community is the most important constituency in this phase. Of the Dalit community, which constitutes 18% of the total vote share, 13% are Mahadalits (of which 2.5% are Musahars) and 5% are Paswan (Dusadh). There are approximately 100 seats where the voter population of this community is between 30,000 and 40,000 per seat.
Chirag came and Sahni left.
JDU directly lost 22 seats due to Chirag contesting the elections on his own. The BJP and political pundits believe that the alliance between Chirag and Jitan Ram Manjhi will consolidate 7.5% of the Paswan and Musahar community votes in favor of the NDA.
Muslims are hoping for new leadership.
For decades, RJD’s powerful leaders were the face of Muslim politics in Seemanchal. Now, there is a clear anxiety among Muslims about new leadership. The AIMIM, which won five Muslim-dominated seats in Seemanchal in the last election, has linked the Mahagathbandhan’s failure to field a deputy CM candidate to an insult to the community.
Furthermore, the newly formed Jan Suraj Party, which is contesting this election, is also striving to establish itself as a leader of Muslims. The AIMIM has fielded Muslim candidates in all Muslim-dominated seats. The Jan Suraj Party has also fielded candidates from the same community in Muslim-majority seats.
By Abhishek Singh
Courtesy: Hindi News