Why A Mega Dalit Outreach Is Part Of BJP’s Plan For Poll-Bound Bihar From June 20

The BJP has decided to go all out to woo Dalits of poll-bound Bihar, even before seat-sharing talks have begun among the NDA constituents for the upcoming election.

Starting June 20, the party will target the Ravidas community by organising the Sant Shiromani Ravidas Sammelan-cum-honour ceremony in Bihar. Sant Ravidas, a 15th-century Bhakti saint, is a significant figure in the Dalit community and is widely recognised as a Dalit icon. Last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi commemorated Ravidas’ 647th birth anniversary in his Lok Sabha constituency Varanasi. Now, with Bihar election around the corner, BJP has decided to hold such conclaves in different districts and created a schedule for that.

News18 has learnt that BJP has fixed conclave dates for Begusarai on June 20, Samastipur on June 22, Madhubani on June 25, Bagaha and Bhagalpur on June 29, Saharsa on June 30, Muzaffarpur and Siwan on July 6, Darbhanga on July 7, Gaya on July 13, Banka on July 16, Arwal on July 18, Khagaria and Sitamarhi on July 20 and Gopalganj on July 31, which will be the season finale.

There will also be a special conclave through which Dalit outreach efforts will be made in Bihar’s capital Patna though the date for it is not yet finalised. The party wants the Patna conclave to be a show-stopper with big names in attendance, and hence, the date will depend on their availability, say BJP sources.

But why the focus on Dalits? Sources in the know suggest there are two reasons behind it. One is pure caste arithmetic. Though the Ravidas community constitutes just 5 per cent of Bihar’s voters, if the total Dalit pie in Bihar is taken into consideration, the number jumps to 19 per cent. While BJP is confident about upper castes and OBC support of a few, JDU too brings OBC strengths. Even NDA’s smaller allies like Rashtriya Lok Morcha leader Upendra Kushwaha can influence OBC votes. Only former Bihar CM Jitin Ram Majhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha-Secular(HAM-S) and LJP (RV) Chirag Paswan have limited sway over those known as the backwards.

The second reason stems from an unfavourable experience in last year’s Lok Sabha election when the BJP-led NDA lost nine Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, NDA won 39 seats while in 2024, it managed to win 30. In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the situation was even more grim. The BJP-led NDA lost a whopping 28 seats. Later, BJP went on record to accept that Congress managed to twist BJP’s ‘400 paar’ campaign slogan as fear mongering among Dalit voters, suggesting their reservation rights are on the line. This worked against the BJP in the two Hindi heartland states.

Since June 4 last year, when the results were declared, BJP has taken corrective measures to win the narrative war. However, the party feels that with no big alliance partner that has a solid grip among the Dalit community, the outreach is the best way forward.

Sources in the BJP say the plan to carpet-bomb the Ravidas Sammelans was conceived in mid-May when Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi alleged that the Bihar Police stopped him on his way to Ambedkar hostel in Darbhanga, adding that “they could not stop me because your power (minority community) is watching over me”.

Back then, Bihar BJP president Dilip Jaiswal had hit out at Gandhi, saying: “He should use his mind. If he had to use a government building or hostel, he should have sent an official itinerary. He is the Leader of Opposition and a state president of a party has to teach this?”

However, it is learnt that this visit may have worked as a catalyst for the state BJP to pre-emptively launch a mega Dalit outreach, having learnt its lessons last year.

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Sources said LJP (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan is serious about the Bihar assembly polls and is likely to contest from a general seat rather than a traditionally reserved seat

The BJP may have made it clear that Nitish Kumar will be chief minister if they win the Bihar assembly election – regardless of the numbers – but Chirag Paswan’s desire to leave Delhi and return to state politics is being seen in many quarters as a challenge to the JD(U) leader.

Union minister Chirag Paswan, the leader of NDA ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), has been “positioning” himself to ask for a better share of seats, 45 to be precise, reliable sources told News18.

“Chirag Paswan is aware of the sanctity of an endorsement (of Nitish Kumar) by someone like that of Amit Shah (in the Gopalganj rally). He is not in that race (to become CM), let me be very clear about that. But does he want his party to have a fair deal this election and grow bigger? Yes,” said a source on condition of anonymity.

Chirag on Monday expressed his intention to contest the assembly election. “I don’t see myself in central politics for too long. My reason for entering politics was Bihar and the people of Bihar. I want to take forward my vision of ‘Bihar First, Bihari First’,” he said.

“Sometimes, when national leaders contest state elections, it does help the party grow. If my participation helps the alliance and strengthens the NDA’s position in Bihar, I will contest,” he added.

According to sources, Chirag is serious about the election and his party MP Arun Bharti, who is also his brother-in-law, told the media that rather than contesting from a traditionally reserved seat, he will fight from a general seat given he “represents every segment of society”.

Sources in LJP (Ram Vilas) said even before their leader’s announcement, a quiet audit was being conducted by third parties to find the seat that will ensure a bumper win for him, while also translating into a big help for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Having won from a reserved seat like Jamui and Hajipur (his father Ram Vilas Paswan contested from this seat, which became a bone of contention with his uncle at one point), the Union minister is focused on a general seat like Nawada.

“He will be fighting from Nawada, this Bihar election. It is confirmed,” Bharti told News18.

The seat has 70,000 Bhumihars, 55,000 Yadavs, 50,000 SC/ST voters and 30,000 each Kushwaha and Muslim voters. It is a mixed constituency that will help him emerge as a face defying Bihar’s caste considerations, said people close to him.

“Every alliance leader has the right to operate their party the way they wish to operate. I don’t think we need to comment upon it,” Bihar BJP president Dilip Jaiswal told News18 in a brief statement, when asked to react to Chirag’s intentions.

But, why this aggressive push now and can he get 45 seats?

Those close to Chirag insisted that he has reason to believe that Nitish Kumar’s health may not allow him to complete a full term if the NDA returns to power.

In such a scenario, he will have a chance to claim the deputy chief minister’s post. At present, he commands a 6 per cent vote share and hopes to increase the bar this time, which is why he wants to bargain hard for 45 seats.

Reacting to the seat count, however, a BJP source told News18 that “we will cross the bridge when it comes”. “It’s any alliance partner’s right to demand. Last year, after the BJP and JD(U) seat-sharing was done, the BJP had to accommodate smaller allies like the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), led by Mukesh Sahni, from its own quota. Where is the scope? But yes, our leaders will sit with an open mind when the time is right,” the source said.

In the 2020 election, the JD(U) contested 115 seats but won only 43. The BJP, meanwhile, won 71 out of 110 seats it contested while the HAM won four of seven seats. Vikaasheel Insaan Party won four of the 11 it contested, taking the NDA’s score to 125. The LJP, which was part of the NDA, had quit the alliance before the election while the RLSP was also not part of the alliance.

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Chirag Paswan may contest the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections from a general seat, sparking speculation and local mobilisation with posters promoting him as Bihar’s “hope”.

Political temperatures in Bihar are soaring ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections, and at the centre of the rising heat is a familiar name, Chirag Paswan. The union minister and chief of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) triggered a fresh wave of speculation by signalling his intent to contest the upcoming elections, possibly for the first time from a general seat in the state Assembly. This move, if confirmed, could reshape the contours of Bihar’s electoral battlefield.

The speculation gained traction after a social media post by Jamui MP and Paswan’s brother-in-law, Arun Bharti, said, “When the leader is of the whole of Bihar, then why should the scope of the seat be limited?”. He further urged that Paswan should contest not from a reserved seat, but from a general one – framing him as the pan-Bihar alternative and a unifying figure beyond caste lines.

Courtesy : News18

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