Dalit-Muslim Equation Struggles in Uttar Pradesh Politics: A Broken Strategy

Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, and Chandrashekhar Azad’s attempts at reigniting the alliance fall Short amid BJP’s dominance

Mohammad Alamullah

NEW DELHI — In recent years, the Dalit-Muslim alliance has emerged as a prominent political strategy for several regional parties in Uttar Pradesh (UP), but despite high hopes, this equation has repeatedly failed to deliver electoral success. In the by-elections held for 9 assembly seats in UP, parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), and Azad Samaj Party tried to leverage the Dalit-Muslim coalition to secure victory. However, these efforts were overshadowed by the BJP’s social engineering and dominant political presence in the state.

This pattern has been evident in previous elections as well, with the Dalit-Muslim formula failing to bring any significant electoral victories in the 2022 UP Assembly Elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. BSP’s Mayawati, SP’s Akhilesh Yadav, and Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party have all experimented with this strategy, yet their attempts to revive their political fortunes through the Dalit-Muslim alliance have proven unsuccessful. The fundamental question that arises is: why is the Dalit-Muslim equation not working in Uttar Pradesh, despite being seen as a potentially powerful coalition?

Mayawati’s Struggles with the Dalit-Muslim Equation

BSP leader Mayawati has been attempting to revive her party’s fortunes by focusing on the Dalit-Muslim equation, especially after her party’s decline in the 2017 Assembly Elections and the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. In the recent by-elections, Mayawati’s BSP fielded Muslim candidates in Meerapur and Kundarki seats, hoping to capitalise on the combined support of Dalit and Muslim voters. However, the results were dismal. BSP’s candidate Shahnazar secured only 3,248 votes in Meerapur, finishing fifth, while on the Kundarki seat, Rafatullah garnered just 1,099 votes, placing BSP in the fifth position once again.

This failure to connect with both the Dalit and Muslim vote banks signals a deepening crisis for BSP. The Jatav community, which forms the party’s core Dalit support base, seems to be drifting away from Mayawati. Despite her efforts to field Muslim candidates and project the Dalit-Muslim alliance, the party could not consolidate the vote share necessary to win. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the 2022 Assembly elections, Mayawati’s strategy of fielding Muslim candidates also failed to produce a single seat for BSP. Even in municipal elections, where the Dalit-Muslim formula was expected to work, BSP’s performance was underwhelming, highlighting a broader disconnect with its traditional vote base.

SP’s Dalit-Muslim Strategy Falters in Ghaziabad

The Samajwadi Party, under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, also attempted to implement a Dalit-Muslim equation in the Ghaziabad by-election. The party fielded Singhraj Jatav, a Dalit candidate, in the general seat of Ghaziabad. The SP hoped to tap into the combined strength of Dalit and Muslim voters, who together account for over one lakh voters in the constituency. However, this strategy did not yield the expected results. Despite the sizeable Dalit-Muslim electorate, Singhraj Jatav only managed to secure less than 28,000 votes, a significant shortfall.

The situation mirrored the 2022 Assembly elections, where SP had fielded Vishal Verma, a Dalit candidate, but he garnered only 44,500 votes, falling far short of victory. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, SP had hoped to win Meerut using the Dalit-Muslim equation but was once again outpaced by BJP’s strategy. This consistent underperformance suggests that while the Dalit-Muslim vote bloc is significant in theory, it has not been successful in translating into electoral victories for the SP. Moreover, in Ghaziabad, while Singhraj Jatav received Muslim votes, he failed to gain the trust of Dalit voters, underscoring a deeper divide within the community.

Chandrashekhar Azad’s Dalit-Muslim Formula Backfires

Chandrashekhar Azad, the leader of Azad Samaj Party, has been another prominent advocate of the Dalit-Muslim equation in Uttar Pradesh politics. Azad, who won the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Nagina, largely due to Muslim support, attempted to replicate this success in the UP by-elections. He fielded Muslim candidates in Meerapur, Kundarki, and Phulpur, hoping to consolidate the Muslim vote in his favour. However, Azad’s party failed to make any significant headway with Dalit voters. His candidates lost their deposits in all three constituencies, underlining the difficulty of forging a successful Dalit-Muslim alliance.

In Meerapur, Azad’s candidate Zahid Hussain managed only 22,661 votes, placing third, while in Kundarki, his candidate Chand Babu got just 14,201 votes. The results in Ghaziabad were no better, with Azad’s candidate securing only 8,269 votes, and the party finishing fourth. The Dalit-Muslim equation, once again, failed to deliver. While Azad was able to gain some Muslim votes, he could not unite them with the Dalit community. This split in the vote bank has made it difficult for Azad’s party to gain a foothold in the state’s competitive political landscape.

The Shifting Dynamics: BJP’s Social Engineering

One of the key reasons for the failure of the Dalit-Muslim equation in Uttar Pradesh is the increasing dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its social engineering strategies. The BJP has successfully managed to unite various caste groups under its umbrella, including the Dalits, OBCs, and upper-caste communities. While the Dalit-Muslim alliance might appear powerful on paper, it has been unable to compete with the BJP’s ability to consolidate a broader social coalition.

Moreover, BJP’s political machinery has managed to neutralise the Dalit-Muslim formula by offering welfare schemes and policies that cater to a wider electorate, including the economically disadvantaged among Dalits and Muslims. This has made it increasingly difficult for regional parties like BSP, SP, and Azad Samaj Party to mobilize Dalit-Muslim votes in the face of BJP’s appeal.

The Waning Impact of the Dalit-Muslim Equation

The repeated failure of the Dalit-Muslim equation in Uttar Pradesh elections, despite being a central strategy for several regional parties, suggests that the political landscape of the state is undergoing significant changes. The traditional alignment of Dalits and Muslims as a voting bloc no longer holds the same sway it once did. In particular, the failure of Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, and Chandrashekhar Azad to secure substantial victories with the Dalit-Muslim formula signals a shift in political dynamics.

The growing influence of the BJP, combined with its successful social engineering, has made it difficult for smaller parties to capitalize on traditional vote banks. The Dalit-Muslim equation, while important, no longer appears to be the trump card for political victory in Uttar Pradesh, and parties will need to reassess their strategies in light of these shifting dynamics. The future of UP politics will depend on how regional parties adapt to the changing electorate and whether they can offer a more inclusive, multi-caste, and cross-community appeal that can rival the BJP’s dominance in the state.

Courtesy : Clarion India

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